Ahhh its that time of year again. As a depressed Falcons fan, this time of year becomes increasingly disturbing as I am I reminded of the worst loss in the history of the franchise. It was February 5th, 2017 when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots laid claim to the real estate inside every Falcons fans brain forever. Every Super Bowl I am reminded of how close we were to winning our first ever World Title, but those days are long gone and we have an awesome match-up to look forward too! We are just one day away from Super Bowl LV where the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, will face off against the Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Like any true sports fan, the Super Bowl is a special time of year for those that enjoy betting hundreds of dollars on a coin flip, or even the duration of the national anthem, which currently sits at O/U 1 minute 59 seconds for those who are wondering. In today’s post, we are going to take a look at past trends in order to find a few bets that are sure fire winners! Let me also sneak this in there that I am no where near a professional bettor or sports handicapper, so do as you will with whatever information I am giving you.
Lets first take a look at the injury report for both teams:
The only injury that is worth noting is that of tackle Eric Fisher. Arguably one of the best in the league at his position, the Bucs DL will be at an advantage in the trenches. We will also have to see how Patrick Mahomes looks in the first few plays of the game. Anyone who has had a toe injury knows how much of a pain in the ass it can be. Some pain meds and a shot should do the trick, but definitely something in the back of my head.
Now lets get to the fun stuff, the almighty trends:
- The line opened in most books at 3.5 points favoring the Kansas City Chiefs. Since opening the line has come down to 3, with support coming in for the Bucs. In the last 15 Super Bowls, the team who the line moved in favor of is 10-5 against the spread.
- Underdogs are 13-6-1 against the spread since 2000.
- Since 2003, the team with the worst winning percentage is 13-1 against the spread.
- In the first quarter of the 9 Super Bowls Tom Brady has been in, the first quarter under has hit in 8 out of the 9 games.
- In the last 16 Super Bowls, the team wearing their white jerseys have gone an impressive 13-3.
- The Super Bowl has been held in Florida 16 times. Of those 16 times, the favorite has won straight up 12 of those times.
- AFC teams are 6-1 straight up in the the last 7 Super Bowls televised by CBS.
- AFC teams are 11-5 straight up in Super Bowls played in Florida.
With all that said here is where I am laying my money. Again I am not a pro at this (actually the opposite) so do not use this as “advice”.
- Bucs (+3) How can you bet against the GOAT? This is his game, his field, and most likely his 7th super bowl ring. The Bucs defense has really turned it on in the playoffs and I don’t think Sunday will be any different. Although Hill and Mahomes had a field day in their first meeting, the Bucs get back the two corner backs they were missing from that game. Final Score: Bucs 38 Chiefs 30
- TD Props: Gronk Anytime Scorer (+180) Tom Brady Anytime Scorer (+400) Patrick Mahomes Anytime Scorer (+250)
- Player Props: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (+135)
- First Quarter Prop: First Quarter Under 10.5 points (-150)
- Coin Toss: Tails never Fails (-103)
- Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady (+190)
As always, check out more content from me on twitch, instagram, and twitter! I’ll throw a few links at the bottom. Enjoy your weekend, enjoy the game, and I’ll catch ya later.
Cous1n's Corner 